Best Picture is pretty exciting this year. There's a film that's leading (The Hurt Locker), a good possible upset (Avatar) and I have a horse in the race with a marginal chance of spoiling (Inglourious Basterds). So that'll be fun. Unfortunately I'm going to have to sit through everyone going through the motions, with Mo'Nique, Christoph Waltz, Sandra Bullock, Jeff Bridges and Kathryn Bigelow walk up and give rambling speeches like they split an economy-sized bag of barbiturates in the bathroom before the ceremony. Like I did with nominations, I'll probably play it pretty safe.
Best Picture
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: Avatar
Possible Spoiler: The Hurt Locker
I'm saying Avatar will win even though The Hurt Locker is the safer bet. I mostly want Avatar to win so that the Best Picture - Best Director rift will become a family rift.
Best Director
Should Win: Quentin Tarantino
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Possible Spoiler: James Cameron
Don't get me wrong, Kathryn Bigelow made an excellent film that was exceptionally well-made in all respects and that I really enjoyed. It's one of the best war films we've had in years, and certainly the best film about our occupation of Iraq, but Quentin Tarantino did something bold, original and not just a little bit mad with his own war film. He used the language of cinema to create something unique and magnificent. I could pick out pretty much any scene from his film and make it an argument in his favor, but watch this scene and tell me he doesn't deserve it.
Best Actor
Should Win: Jeff Bridges
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
Possible Spoiler: Jeremy Renner
Jeff Bridges has this in the bag, and while I haven't seen his film, he is one of my favorite actors to come out of the 80s who should have won for The Big Lebowski a decade ago. Jeremy Renner might get in if the Academy goes Hurt Locker crazy, which is pretty likely.
Best Actress
Should Win: Anyone but Sandra Bullock
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
Possible Spoiler: If anyone else wins, Sandra Bullock's mind-control Gestopo will erase everyone's memories and say that she won.
I hate Sandra Bullock.
Best Supporting Actor
Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Possible Spoiler: Christopher Plummer
Christopher Plummer is a fine actor and a respected actor. I wouldn't mind seeing him win an Oscar, but I don't think even the Academy will play politics over what may be the best performance of the year. This is a category that, recently, has been used to reward truly great actors who do truly great work, no politics attached. This category has been a refreshing source of justice for the past two years and I hope that trend continues.
Best Supporting Actress
Should Win: N/A
Will Win: Mo'Nique
Possible Spoiler: Either of the chicks from Up in the Air
Haven't seen any of these films, but Mo'Nique has this in the bag as I understand it. The Academy could give it to one of the chicks from Up in the Air if they want to give more than a screenplay mention to that film, but I really doubt it. Hey, speaking of which...
Best Original Screenplay
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: Inglourious Basterds
Possible Spoiler: The Hurt Locker
Even the dumbfuck Academy knows that Tarantino's screenplays are one of the greatest things about American cinema in the past twenty years. He deserves a second Oscar. Too bad no one recognizes his directing.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: In the Loop
Will Win: Up in the Air
Possible Spoiler: Precious
In the Loop deserves this. I don't understand why you wouldn't want to give it to this film. I suppose the nomination is enough and that most people just haven't seen it, but if something gets nominated and you're an Academy voter, wouldn't you want to go see it?
Best Cinematography
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: Avatar
Possible Spoiler: The Hurt Locker
This one will line up with Best Picture, so we'll know who wins Best Picture at this stage, unless they go with one of the other films, which I don't think they will. Hurt Locker or Avatar.
Best Editing
Should Win: Sally Menke
Will Win: Bob Murawski & Chris Innis
Possible Spoiler: Joe Klotz
Again, Tarantino and Menke constructed an editor's showcase with Basterds, but Hurt Locker will win because...I don't know. Everyone is stupid but me.
Best Original Score
Should Win: Michael Giacchino
Will Win: Michael Giacchino
Possible Spoiler: Michael Giacchino, for the love of god.
Please give this award to Pixar and especially to Michael Giacchino. Hey, way to snub Ratatouille two years ago, assholes.
Best Visual Effects
Should Win: District 9
Will Win: Avatar
Possible Spoiler: District 9
I don't think of Avatar as having "visual effects" per se, but rather being an animated film with live-action sequences. A lot of visual effects is how it's integrated into the whole film, and an animated film doesn't really have to bother with that. District 9 created some marvelously emotive characters on a shoestring budget and integrated them perfectly into the landscape of the film.
Animated Film
Should Win: Up
Will Win: Up
Possible Spoiler: Fantastic Mr. Fox
So many good animated films were released this year that I really just love the hell out of this category right now.
Art Direction: Avatar
Costume Design: The Young Victoria
Makeup: Star Trek
Original Song: The Weary Kind
Sound Mixing: Avatar
Sound Editing: Avatar
Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon
Documentary: The Cove
Documentary, Short Subject: The Last Truck
Live Action Short: The Door
Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death
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